Intel Report: The Weekly Mobility News That Matters

BY AUTOMOTIVE VENTURES | FEB 26 2024 | VIEW ONLINE

What We're Reading

Combined sales of hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and battery electric vehicles (BEV) in the U.S. rose to 16.3% of total new light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales in 2023. In 2022, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and BEV sales were 12.9% of total sales. | U.S. Energy Information Administration

Plug-in hybrids seem to be catching on faster than EVs with consumers because they combine some electric-only range with the security of a backup gasoline engine. They were the fastest-growing light vehicle sold in the U.S. last year, rising 60% to 293,558 vehicles. | The Washington Post ($)

Hybrid vehicles that combine a gasoline engine with battery power have become a popular option for buyers seeking an alternative to traditional gas-powered cars, but some climate-activist and consumer groups are challenging how environmentally friendly the cars are. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Lucid and Rivian are more exposed to cooling demand than legacy rivals that can lean on gas-powered vehicles to support electric investments. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

Joe Biden has a dream. And Elon Musk had looked best placed to help make it a reality. The president wants to create a U.S.-centered electric vehicle supply chain and is using his multibillion-dollar Inflation Reduction Act to achieve it. | Bloomberg ($)

Donald J. Trump has made inroads with autoworkers by accusing the White House of pursuing a “job-killing E.V. mandate.” Many of them dismiss electric vehicles as unwanted, unaffordable and impractical given the need to charge them. They nurse a sense of grievance that their jobs are being risked for the goal of limiting carbon emissions, while many question the scientific consensus behind climate change. | The New York Times ($)

Former President Donald J. Trump has repeatedly attacked central elements of the Inflation Reduction Act, including tax credits for purchasing electric vehicles. As a result, corporate executives have begun facing questions in recent weeks about the possibility that the legislation could be rolled back. | The New York Times ($)

Electric vehicles assembled in Mexico can also qualify for a U.S. consumer tax credit of as much as $7,500 under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, President Joe Biden’s signature climate law. | Bloomberg ($)

Ford CEO Jim Farley said that BYD is the biggest game-changer in the BEV space today and is the chief reason the Dearborn automaker has re-tooled its BEV strategy to focus on a low-cost architecture that will support a group of compact and subcompact BEV vehicles comparable in size to the current Ford Escape and smaller. BYD is exploring a manufacturing site in Mexico for a base from which to supply North and South America, including the U.S. | Wards Auto

Albemarle, the world’s largest lithium producer, has downgraded its 2030 demand forecast for the key battery ingredient by 10% as it now sees the shift to electric cars in the US and Europe taking longer than previously thought. Eric Norris, Albemarle’s president of lithium, said that demand forecasts were cut because of carmakers delaying the launch of electric vehicle models in western markets. | Financial Times ($)

Mercedes-Benz warned that electric vehicles will remain more expensive than their combustion-engine siblings for years to come as the luxury car maker braces for cooling demand for cars with a plug. Variable cost parity between EVs and traditional cars “is many years away,” Chief Executive Officer Ola Källenius said. | Bloomberg ($)

Volkswagen, Renault and Stellantis are thinking the unthinkable, exploring tie-ups with sworn competitors to make cheaper electric vehicles and fend off existential threats. As Chinese rivals and Tesla expose competitive weaknesses at Europe’s biggest mass-market carmakers, it’s become clear that a sense of urgency is growing and a business-as-usual approach is a losing option. | Bloomberg ($)

Cliff Banks explores the threats and opportunities from the coming wave of Chinese automakers. | The Banks Report

The Alliance for American Manufacturing has asked the U.S. government to consider blocking the import of low-cost Chinese autos and parts from Mexico, warning they could threaten the viability of American car companies, and be "an extinction-level event for the U.S. auto sector." A group of lawmakers urged U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai to boost the 27.5% tariff on Chinese vehicles. | Automotive News ($)

Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares estimates the auto industry has two to three years to bring the price of electric vehicles down to parity with internal combustion vehicles. By then, Chinese automakers will start making inroads in the U.S. — presumably by assembling vehicles in Mexico — and put tremendous pressure on EV profits, as they are already doing in Europe. Within a decade, Tavares foresees consolidation down to five or so global automakers, including Stellantis. So while he isn't lobbying to keep Chinese automakers out of the U.S., he might be suggesting more openness to mergers that would have previously made regulators uncomfortable. | Automotive News ($)

In October 2023, Stellantis announced the acquisition of 20% of Chinese automaker Leapmotor. Stellantis Chief Executive Carlos Tavares just announced that they may build Leapmotor vehicles in Europe, North America or other markets where it needs competitively-priced models to compete with Chinese EV makers. | Reuters ($)

Sounds like Stellantis may be playing a different game, given their recent investment into Chinese automaker Leapmotor. | Automotive News ($)

Stellantis is promising its U.S. dealers it will reduce its inventory by one-third through incentives and by repricing several high-volume models. Cox Automotive Inc. reports that in December, the Chrysler and Dodge brands had at least twice the industry average days’ supply of 70 days. Jeep and Ram were also well above average. Days’ supply is an estimate of how long a given inventory would last at the current sales rate if it were not replenished. | Wards Auto

The promise of wireless EV charging, an inductive transfer of electrons, would eliminate the need for all pesky EV charging cords. Multiple startups have spent years working towards a world in which wireless charging goes mainstream, and as EV adoption picks up, momentum is building to make that dream a reality. Even Tesla is interested. | Bloomberg ($)

Carmakers in the U.K. have begun compensating leasing companies for the sliding value of used electric cars as Tesla's price cuts rip through an industry that must sell more EVs or face hefty fines. Leasing companies are demanding concessions from EV makers, including agreements that manufacturers will buy back vehicles, to protect against further erosion in the $1.2 trillion second-hand car market. | Bloomberg ($)

Automakers are rolling out new 800-volt electric vehicle platforms, which promise to cut charging time in half, though a few of the biggest manufacturers are still hesitating to invest in the new technology, leaving them at risk of getting left behind. Today most EVs are based on 400-volt architectures — and for a standard can take about 20 minutes to add 200 kilometers (124 miles) of range. An 800-volt EV can do the same job in about 10 minutes. | Bloomberg ($)

Auto-parts supplier FORVIA is poised to cut roughly 13% of its European workforce over the next five years, with plans to tap artificial intelligence to better compete with Asian rivals in the shift to electric cars. The French company’s effort to slim down by about 10,000 jobs includes changes to regional manufacturing and spending on research and development. This would improve profit margins and keep pace with the industry’s fundamental changes. | Bloomberg ($)

During the pandemic, American drivers got even more distracted by their phones while driving. The amount of distracted driving hasn’t receded, even as life has mostly stabilized. Both phone motion and screen interaction while driving went up roughly 20% between 2020-2022. Drivers interacted with their phones on nearly 58% of trips in 2022. More than a third of that phone motion distraction happens at over 50 mph. | Vox

ACV Auctions has settled its antitrust litigation related to the AutoIMS Remarketing Technology. In 2022, ACV filed suit after the company was unable to secure an AutoIMS license. ACV has now received an AutoIMS license and settled the lawsuit. The company may now provide services to the 1,300 commercial consignors that currently utilize AutoIMS to connect with hundreds of physical auctions. | Yahoo! Finance

Thoma Bravo is weighing a sale of J.D. Power and is working with a financial adviser to gauge interest in the consumer intelligence provider, seeking about $8 billion including debt. Thoma Bravo acquired J.D. Power in 2019 for undisclosed terms. It merged the company with data and software provider Autodata Solutions. | Automotive News ($)

Ford Pro has said it expects software and service to drive 20% of its earnings in two years. Ford Pro CFO Navin Kumar said it is currently in the "low to mid-teens." CEO Jim Farley this month called Ford Pro the "future" of the auto industry for its ability to drive sales of high-margin software services. Kumar said software margins are topping 50% and the company has about 500,000 customers paying for such subscriptions. Most of those customers come from rental fleets purchasing telematics data or small businesses buying offerings that track vehicle health and other information. | Automotive News ($)

Price increases over the last 10 years:

Auto Insurance: +85%
Auto Maintenance & Repair: +50%
Overall US Consumer Prices (CPI): +31%

@charliebilello

Auto insurance is up more than 20% from a year ago. In many places, private home insurance isn’t available at all. (thanks to Alan Demers and Stephen Applebaum). | Mish Talk ($)

While there has been a surge in car thefts across Canada — up 24% in 2022, the most recent year nationwide statistics were available — the scourge has hit the Toronto area particularly hard, creating a mix of paranoia, vigilance and resentment. So pervasive are car thefts in Canada’s largest city, up 150% in the past six years, that the issue has become something of a common bond among vehicle owners. | The New York Times ($)

Dublin will become the latest European capital to bar through traffic from its city center. In a bid to clear the roads and clean the air at its core, Ireland’s largest city is beginning a process of replanning central streets so that private cars and commercial trucks will be allowed access only if their final destination is downtown. | Bloomberg ($)

Hydrogen is a beguiling substance: the lightest element. When it reacts with oxygen it produces only water and releases abundant energy. The invisible gas looks like a clean fuel of the future. Some of the world’s top automotive executives are hoping it will dethrone the battery as the technology of choice for zero-emissions driving. Many critics of electric vehicles argue that we should not ditch petrol and diesel engines. This article asks: could hydrogen offer a third way and overtake the battery? | The Guardian

Stellantis and Waymo are not only still working together, the companies are deepening the partnership, focusing on commercial self-driving Ram Commercial delivery vans, a target that was first announced in 2020. | Tech Crunch

The first human patient implanted with a brain chip from Neuralink appears to have fully recovered and is able to control a computer mouse using their thoughts. Neuralink uses a robot to surgically place a brain-computer interface implant in a region of the brain that controls the intention to move. | Reuters ($)

Flying Delta Air Lines all these years has finally paid off. Thank you Porsche for the best travel perk in the history of mankind.| The Drive

In the next few years, AI promises to transform the logistics of consumer deliveries with a number of new technologies and improvements to old ones. Here’s a look at some of the most intriguing innovations on the way. | The Wall Street Journal ($)

This summer, struggling swimmers off Coney Island might be met not just by a young lifeguard in an orange suit but also by assistance from above, in the form of a buglike device delivering an inflatable float. | The New York Times ($)

OAG's "Travel Tech Report 2024" is available: Exploring the critical operational aspects of airlines and the sweeping technological changes revolutionizing key operational areas: Aircraft Turnaround, Flight Planning, and Baggage Management. | OAG

Is the key to slowing global warming to dim the sun by injecting sulfur particles into the stratosphere? | Ben James

We have a new "Car of the Week": a 1976 Lamborghini Countach LP 400 'Periscopio' by Bertone. I grew up loving this car, and you rarely see any of the LP 400s come up for sale. The first production model of the Countach was the LP400, produced from 1974 until 1978. By the end of production in 1978, the company had produced only 157 Countach LP400s. | Automotive News

Have a great week,
Steve Greenfield

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Notable & New

On this week's "Future of Automotive" segment on CBT News, we explore the latest news from Elon Musk's Neuralink. | CBT News ($)